Oscar Predictions

Hey all to save some time and a lot of effort I am going to only talk about the big 5. Those are the ones people really watch for any way.

Best Adapted Screenplay
127 Hours (2010): Danny Boyle, Simon Beaufoy
The Social Network (2010): Aaron Sorkin
Toy Story 3 (2010): Michael Arndt, John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton, Lee Unkrich
True Grit (2010): Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
Winter's Bone (2010): Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini

This whole race comes down to The Social Network. If anybody thinks any other movie has a chance of winning they are stupid. Seriously though if I have to eat my words for this after the Oscars it will be a tragedy. The next best is Toy Story 3. It really is the only other one that has a chance...a thin chance.

Best Original Screenplay
Another Year (2010): Mike Leigh
The Fighter (2010): Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy, Eric Johnson, Keith Dorrington
Inception (2010): Christopher Nolan
The Kids Are All Right (2010): Lisa Cholodenko, Stuart Blumberg
The King's Speech (2010): David Seidler

This one is not nearly as cut and dry as Best Adapted Screenplay. Inception won the WGA, but it could very easily go to The King's Speech. My vote is for Inception. My money is The King's Speech.


Best Actress
Annette Bening for The Kids Are All Right (2010)
Nicole Kidman for Rabbit Hole (2010)
Jennifer Laurence for Winter's Bone (2010)
Natalie Portman for Black Swan (2010)
Michelle Williams for Blue Valentine (2010)

Annette Bening was good in The Kids are All Right, but I found her character overly pissy. Jennifer Laurence was great in Winter's Bone, but the money and my vote goes to Natalie Portman. If you bet against her I can fully blame you. Aronofsky's The Wrestler was primed to win Best Actor for Mickey Roarke when in a huge upset it was given unfairly to Sean Penn, but as of right now safe money is on Natalie Portman.

Best Actor
Javier Bardem for Biutiful (2010)
Jeff Bridges for True Grit (2010)
Jesse Eisenberg for The Social Network (2010)
Colin Firth for The King's Speech (2010)
James Franco for 127 Hours (2010)

This one is easy. Colin Firth. Hands down no question in my mind that this goes to anyone else and deservingly so. Jeff Bridges doesn't even deserve the nomination and James Franco was good, but was stuck in a canyon, the sound was the true star in that movie. No one has seen Biutiful. Which leaves Jesse Eisenberg, who has the best chance of an upset. I am hoping it goes to Eisenberg, but I will not be mad if Firth wins. He did a fantastic job.

Best Director
Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan (2010)
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen for True Grit (2010)
David Fincher for The Social Network (2010)
Tom Hooper for The King's Speech (2010)
David O. Russell for The Fighter (2010)

Let's get one thing straight right now, the Coen Brothers DO NO DESERVE the nomination let alone a win. True Grit was good, but Inception was better. Nolan should have been nominated, he had been nominated every award until the Oscar nom just perpetuating the loathing the Oscars have for Nolan.

Either way the race really boils down to Tom Hooper (The King's Speech) and David Fincher (TSN). I'd love to see Aronofsky win, but he'll have more opportunities and I am betting his best years are ahead of him. Tom Hooper failed multiple times throughout KS with shots and over all feeling. I frankly don't believe he deserves it. My vote and my money is on David Fincher. Not only is The Social Network a pitch perfect movie, but he is amazing at hitting the right note at the right point. This really is Fincher at his best.


Best Picture
Toy Story 3 (2010): Darla K. Anderson
True Grit (2010): Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, Scott Rudin
Winter's Bone (2010): Anne Rosellini, Alix Madigan
The Kids Are All Right (2010): Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte, Celine Rattray
The Fighter (2010): David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman, Mark Wahlberg
127 Hours (2010): Christian Colson, Danny Boyle, John Smithson
The King's Speech (2010): Iain Canning, Emile Sherman, Gareth Unwin
Inception (2010): Christopher Nolan, Emma Thomas
Black Swan (2010): Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver, Scott Franklin
The Social Network (2010): Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca, Ceán Chaffin


I have placed the Best pic noms in order from least deserving to most.

Toy Story is great, but IT'S AN ANIMATED MOVIE. They have their own category, they don't need to be nominated for Best Pic. They miss a part of the movie making process which is getting your hands dirty with the cameras on set. So sorry.

True Grit is painfully average and not worthy of the nomination.

Winter's Bone is a nice little movie, but I feel like there is something more that should have ended up on screen. It doesn't feel totally complete.

The Kid's Are All Right is a well written interesting movie with good character connections. It's the first on the list I feel is moderately deserving of it's nom.

The Fighter sounds great. Admittedly I haven't seen it so I'll update this when I see it possibly later this week or early next week.

127 Hours is a hard to watch taut piece of film. Well acted and even better on the technical side. I am glad it's nominated, but it doesn't deserve a win.

The King's Speech is well acted and that alone gets it this high. Set design is what pushes it up more. Cinematography is weak, but editing is terrific. This is the one that has one of the top 2 best shots of winning. It looked like it had no shot until it won the Director's guild, the Producer's Guild, and the Screen Actors Guild. So it could go here.

Inception
You know my feelings. It's well crafted, well written, and amazingly edited. (Should have been nominated for editing)

Black Swan is so superbly crafted and so insanely painful that it is so much deserving of a nomination I just really hope it gets looked at more as the years go on.

The Social Network is the best of the year in terms of great cinema. It was looking amazing for a while until King's Speech won the awards I mentioned above, but I am betting the academy will vote for the real winner this year. I am hoping the DGA, PGA, and SAG were just give me awards so they could award both King's Speech and give Social Network the Oscar and as it has already won, the Golden Globe.

Any thoughts?

Simon